2026 Mortgage Market Predictions

We sat down with Gavin Judd, National Sales Manager at Source Insurance to take a look back at 2025 and catch up with him around his predictions for 2026.

How has the mortgage market performed so far in 2025?

2025 has been notably steady. Across our adviser community, partners and affiliate networks, we’ve not seen major peaks or troughs. Technology has remained high on the agenda and much of our focus has been on strengthening our proposition to ensure we deliver the best experience for both existing and future partners. Overall, it’s been what you might call a “tick-over year”, stable housing activity, consistent mortgage rates, and few surprises.

What are your expectations for the mortgage market in 2026?

If we listen to the experts (while accepting predictions are never perfect) there are signs that interest rates may begin to fall around the middle of next year as the base rate softens. That would likely lead to slightly lower mortgage rates.

On the housing side, new-build activity is forecast to rise modestly, though not dramatically, which means we shouldn’t expect explosive growth. Lower rates could stimulate a bit more buyer activity, but if the new-build market doesn’t flourish, some regions may still experience stagnation.

For mortgage advisers, this reinforces the need to diversify income streams and avoid relying solely on core mortgage products. There will be pockets of opportunity, but overall, 2026 may look similar to 2025 with incremental rather than dramatic change.

What have been the most common themes in the GI market this year?

The biggest theme across GI and the wider financial services landscape, has undoubtedly been AI. What’s changed this year is advisers’ willingness to explore and adopt new technology. We’ve seen everything from customer-engagement tools aimed at mortgage advisers to insurtech solutions that simplify the use of AI.

We’ve developed our own strategy in this space and are working closely with selected strategic partners to integrate AI in a way that genuinely improves adviser workflows.

Beyond AI, partners continue to look for smarter referral strategies and more efficient ways of handling GI. Bringing together technology, smarter processes and adviser needs is shaping where we go next.

What can we expect from the GI market in 2026?

Over recent years, GI technology across us, our partners and our competitors has reached a point where there are very few technical barriers to entry, whether advisers write policies themselves or refer. From a product and insurer perspective, we’re not expecting huge shifts next year, nor major new brands entering the market. Pricing and product availability will remain familiar.

Because of that stability, meaningful improvement will come from strategic change rather than new products. Education is a key area. We see ourselves as an education leader, but the wider market needs more structured, strategic educational support for advisers. Without that, long-standing issues, such as low penetration, reduced requirements and challenges from comparison sites, will persist.

There are also opportunities in referral pathways, especially across other insurance categories. We’re preparing to evolve our offering to support advisers who cannot or do not write GI themselves, recognising the growing demand for referral solutions.

What about the landlord and buy-to-let (BTL) market in 2026?

Anyone following the sector closely will be aware of the significant changes underway, particularly with the Renters’ Rights Bill progressing. This will have a direct impact on GI.

Historically, some advisers have opted not to offer landlord or BTL policies because it’s been easy to sidestep. With upcoming regulatory changes, that approach will become more challenging. Products such as legal cover, rent-guarantee insurance and more comprehensive landlord protection will be increasingly important.

What can we expect from Source in 2026?

Over the past few years, we’ve built a strong technological foundation that delivers what advisers need while giving them flexibility in how they work. We’ve curated a panel across both household and landlord insurance that meets advisers’ requirements, supported by other ancillary products.

The next step is deeper strategic collaboration, working closely with key partners, focusing on targeted initiatives such as referral solutions and making smarter use of the extensive data and feedback we’ve gathered. In 2026 we will be bolstering our Landlord panel, welcoming more insurers and continuing to support advisers with understanding our new PMI offering. 

Education will also be a major focus. Simply signposting learning content isn’t enough; we’re investing in more structured and impactful development pathways that take adviser training to the next level.

We’ve also been added to several new network panels this year, and we’ll continue to build strong relationships with both existing and new partners. Everything is in place for a strong 2026, and we’re well positioned to deliver on that.

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